EUSS quarterly statistics: paper applications, Zambrano carers and a worrying rise in refusals by Charlotte Rubin

Since July 2020, the Home Office EU Settlement Scheme monthly statistics no longer include breakdowns by nationality, age group, or local authority details. The new reporting style lacks detailed information about EUSS applications overall. This information is now only released with more in-depth analysis as part of the quarterly statistics. At the end of August, the first set of quarterly statistics since this change in reporting style were published, with all the detail analysts had been missing. Here, we break the numbers down for you.

In total, the number of applications received by the end of July surpassed 3.8 million, of which over 3.4 million have been concluded. In July alone, 92,000 applications were received, just below the June figure of 100,800. Of concluded applications, 57% were granted settled status and 41% pre-settled. 76,000 or 2.1% had other outcomes. For July alone these figures were 62,600 (47%) settled status, 52,000 (39%) pre-settled stats and 18,500 (14%) other outcomes.

The trend of rising other outcomes (including refused, invalid, withdrawn and void applications) continued over the last quarter. Notably, the combined amount of refusals in June and July (3,700) account for over 80% of the total amount of refusals since the Scheme’s launch in 2018. Concerning invalid applications, 11,800 applications were found invalid in July and 9,000 in June, thus accounting for 60% of invalid applications so far. Additionally, 4,400 applications were withdrawn in July, the second highest monthly total ever recorded.

This is the first release of statistics that includes reporting on paper applications, of which there have been about 10,000 so far. Paper applications are often some of the most complex applications under the scheme, as they are for example what people without valid ID or relying on derivative instead of direct rights of residence rely on to obtain their status. This could partly explain the steady uptick in refusals and other outcomes; the less straightforward the applications, the more reasons to refuse the Home Office can find.

Paper applications concluded under the Chen, Ibrahim & Teixeira and Zambrano routes and as a family member of a British Citizen totalled 2,870, so over a quarter of all paper applications up to June 2020. These were mostly Family member applications (1,530), and Zambrano applications (1,260). Whilst all Family members applications concluded had a settled or pre-settled outcome, 61% of Zambrano applications concluded so far have been refused. More specifically, applications under derivative rights account for only 1.6% (830) of all other outcomes, yet 92% of these (770) were refusals under the Zambrano route.

Zambrano carers are non-EU citizens who are primary carers of a British citizen, and have a right to reside in the UK under EU law, relying on the judgment an EU law case Zambrano. As Luke Piper of campaign group the3million puts it, Zambrano carers are “usually single mothers with small British children fleeing domestic violence”, in other words some of the poorest and most vulnerable applicants under the Scheme. Before the EU Settlement Scheme, Zambrano carers used to qualify for a right to reside under certain circumstances, but had no path to settlement. In theory, under the Scheme, they can now rely on residual rights to apply for pre-settled or settled status. However, the statistics show that in practice, it is much harder for Zambrano carers to obtain status under the EUSS than for other eligible applicants. In fact, crunching the number shows that Zambrano refusals account for 25% of all refusals made to the scheme so far.

Breaking other outcomes down by nationality, three nationalities and non-EEA nationals account for over half of “other outcomes” in the UK: Romanian applicants represent 20% of other outcomes, Polish nationals 17% (8,710), Portuguese nationals 9% (4,820) and non-EEA nationals relying on derivative rights 8% (4,370). Comparing these numbers to the number of applicants from each of these nationalities, puts things into perspective, as it becomes apparent that although Romania account for only 16% of the total number of applicants, Portugal for 9% and Non- EEA nationals only 4%, their percentages of other outcomes are much higher, meaning they are disproportionately represented in other outcomes. Especially non-EEA nationals, who constitute only a fraction of all applicants (4%), but get twice as much refusals (8%), are much less likely to succeed in their application. Polish nationals are the only ones in the top three EEA nationalities that are not disproportionately represented in their share of other outcomes, as they account for 20% of all concluded applications.

Finally, if we zoom in on London, where majority of EUSS applications are made, we can see that the total number of applications up to June were 1,323,200. The applications concluded were 1,236,000, of which 109,200 were concluded since the last quarterly statistics in March. The proportion of other outcomes in London is roughly comparative with the total percentage of concluded applications in the area.

The Home Office has these figures all along, but only showing it publicly now. This leaves certain groups of people with higher refusal percentages with a short period to re-apply or appeal their outcome before the deadline of 30 June 2021 passes.

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